Thursday 4 February 2010

S&P 500: Descending channel established? Continued...

Following on from our post yesterday, we have executed a short position at 1103.6 yesterday citing the market's adherence to the descending channel as illustrated in the charts below. We were initially hesitant as the S&P 500 looked as if our descending channel may be the flag of bull flag; upon closer analysis however, the gradient of the flagpole was not anywhere near steep enough when compared with the typical bull flag formation manifest in US Equities:



Post-market close, we placed another sell order - filled at 1100 - on the apparent enduring nature of descending channel resistance. Perhaps more pivotal was yesterday's price action formed something of a bearish harami on the S&P 500 D1(daily). We understand that it didn't completely fit the harami criteria as it didn't open below the previous candlestick's close, but the net effect is not too dissimilar: market indecision. Please see below examples of similar formations, manifest in the S&P 500:







Even as I type this, the formation looks to be playing out better than we could have imagined! Unfortunately however, we exited ahead of MPC and ECB rate decisons at 1092.0 as we didn't want to get clipped in what we would be choppy waters! Next time, eh?

Going forward we have a potential trade on Fiber - EUR/USD on the back of a falling wedge formation this time, but the setup is on the brink of being taken as I type this:



We are long at 1.3790 with a tight stoploss at 1.3750. This level really is make or break for FIBER.

Remember NFP tomorrow, so be sure to check back in the morning ahead of the number!

Profitable trading Traders!

"Remember, I am neither a bear nor a bull, I am an agnostic opportunist. I want to make money short- and long-term. I want to find good situations and exploit them."

- Jim Cramer

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