Tuesday, 2 August 2011

Buyers of dips see short-term adversity as opportunity.

We are long today as of 12005, if indeed DJIA gets there. As I type this however, DJIA straddles 12034 so an entry is looking ever likely.

Please see the chart below for enduring support on w1 at this level:

Safe trading Flatbookers.

Thursday, 10 June 2010

We are shorting DJIA into descending resistance

Hey Flatbookers,

As per previous post, descending resistance is still in play and looks like it's going nowhere fast:

To further affirm the thinking behind our short position, we also have a fully formed descending triangle:

The problem facing us however, is that there are several prospective points of entry. We have two distinct resistance lines, both of which have been tested with varying frequencies - see below with points of inflexion highlighted in blue and red respectively:

The danger here is that shorting at the nearest resistance (10008) with too tight a stop could be disastrous, as we are clipped only for the market to turnaround and head in our direction AFTER we are out of the position. Wait for the upper resistance (10084) exclusively however, and the market the inflexion point might arrive before we our designated entry.

We shall action two short positions then, price action depending. Half already filled at 10008 with s/l above 10105 and the other half will be actioned at 10084, price action permitting, again with s/l above 10105. As far as targets Flatbookers, stay nimble. 9800 is not out of the question by weekend, and longer term we think the DJIA may hit 9000 within the next couple of weeks!

Stay safe flatbookers!

"Most often, traders have four fears. There’s the fear of being wrong, the fear of losing money, the fear of missing out and the fear of leaving money on the table. I found that basically, those four fears accounted for probably 90% to 95% of the trading errors that we make. Let’s put it this way: If you can recognize opportunity, what’s going to prevent you from executing your trades properly? Your fear. Your fears immobilize you. Your fears distort your perception of market information in ways that don’t allow you to utilize what you know."

Thursday, 3 June 2010

Wednesday, 5 May 2010

Long DJIA @ 10895


As per header, we have executed a sizeable DJIA long @ 10895. With the overwhelming trend still north-facing, we contend that the past few days are not indicative of a change in sentiment but instead present us with a great opportunity to buy on a sizeable dip. The ascending channel below provides us with qualification as to the enduring strength of the ensuing uptrend:

As of 1034 GMT we are 50pips in the black, and will look to add to the position should we see 10895 this trading day.

If we learned anything from yesterday's price action, it's the importance of an adequate stop loss and having the resolve to leave it in place.

"The art of living lies not in eliminating but in growing with troubles."
- Bernard Baruch

Tuesday, 4 May 2010

This is why we have stops....

Out of DJIA long @ 10945 for -30....

Long DJIA @ 10975; 1508hrs GMT

As of 1508hrs GMT we are long DJIA @ 10975. Notwithstanding the ensuing PIIGS debacle (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain), BP's oil spill and the NY terror threat, we theorize that the enduring support as seen on the chart below will hold firm until close, at least. Remember flatbookers, one week does no the trend make, and real-time, the overriding trend is still north-facing. As always, we will use tight stops to mitigate losses, should the position go against us.

Safe trading flatbookers.

“Every moment in the market is unique….and you don't need to know what is going to happen next to make money.”
- Mark Douglas

Friday, 23 April 2010

Ascending traingle on DJIA; possible breakout?


We had a great day yesterday and with pips on the board we will look to build on that today. It would seem that early this trading day the flat top we talked about in our previous post....

... is still in play, but for how long? The eagle-eyed market technicians among us will have spotted something of an ascending traingle, a continuation pattern, forming over the past few weeks. Should we break out and consolidate above 11160 apprx. then we will look for an entry long:

Despite recent success shorting the flat top at 11150, let's be mindful of the enduring uptrend currently playing in global markets:

Nothwithstanding the small short positions we effected at 11150 this morning, we understand that an unwavering bear will lose money in this market. We will stay short below 11160. Above 11160 however, and we will flip the trade in anticipation of a breakout and so a substantive move.

Safe trading Flatbookers

"Investing without research is like playing stud poker and never looking at the cards."
- Peter Lynch

Thursday, 22 April 2010

DJIA Flat top @ 11150 within a long term ascending channel

Good Morning Flatbookers,

We sold short DJIA at 11145 yesterday, anticipating a pullback on the back of a near perfect triple top We are now out of that position for 70 odd pips

Our principal focus today however, is an entry long. As depicted on the chart below, despite small declines late in the trading day yesterday and early this morning (GMT), the DJIA is in the midst of a strong ascending channel and an uptrend which, at the time of writing, shows no signs of abating. We will look for an entry long then, circa. 11040 with an initial target of 11150.

Trade safely Flatbookers.

"Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago."
- Warren Buffett

Thursday, 4 March 2010

Bullish channel: DJIA

As per the header and our fleeting post yesterday, technicals are looking fairly bullish on US indices. Ahead of Non-farm payroll data tomorrow, both the Dow Jow Industrial Average and the S&P have established 500 bullish channels:

Pursuant to this, we executed a sizeable long position post market close at 10385 DJIA with a view to hold this until we test the top of the channel or the market consolidates below the channel's lower parameter.

We also managed, though rather fortuitously, to execute a speculative cable short at 1.5123 on the back of enduring descending resistance:

As of 1533 this is looking like a protracted intra-day pullback and so we may add to the position if opportunity sufficient presents itself.

Safe trading flatbookers!

"Our favourite holding period is forever."
-Warren Buffett

Wednesday, 3 March 2010

Bullish channel on DJIA...

Long executed @ 10385.

More to come.....

Wednesday, 10 February 2010

DJIA - critical juncture?

On the back of recent price activity, we feel the market has betrayed underlying bearish sentiment and we will begin picking up shorts on rallies going forward. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has crossed, and more importantly consolidated below MA20, all the while in adherence with the descending channel pictured below.

While the debate over Greek aid rages on, here at the flatbook we looked for any significant technical evidence that recent highs of 10733 (DJIA) and 1150 (S&P500) may represent the beginnings of a second leg down. Resistance/support level 10650 on the DJIA and price action around this level is most worthy of mention. Having tested and settled above this level in January, June and July '06, the DJIA continued to the upside for the best part of 15 months to October '07 highs. In Sept '08 we failed at this level and the bottom dropped out of the market until March of last year when we finally stemmed the tide at 6470 (DJIA). Ominously, we tested and failed at this level two weeks ago and have since settled decisively below it.

Thirdly the candlestick pattern that formed as we failed 2 weeks ago at 10650 is comparable to that, formed at Oct '07 highs.

Though it's not quite an evening star formation (there is not a gap between the first and second sticks, and the second and third sticks respectively), the sentiment of indecision is still manifest in both patterns.

To conclude then guys, we are sellers of rallies below 10650 on the DJIA. 2010 could be a very bumpy ride.

Though we've posted it a couple of months back, we'd like to draw your attention once more, to the following video detailing Robert Prechter's (Elliot Wave founder) long term views on equities:

Safe trading all!

"Millions saw the apple fall, but Newton asked why."
- Bernard M. Baruch