Friday, 3 July 2009

Breakout to the downside on S&P500?

As per our intention, we closed the other half of yesterday's 931 short ahead of the ECB interest rate decision at 915 for a further 160 pips. Not bad for less than 24 hours work, eh? Going forward, we've been monitoring the progress of what appears to be the formation of a symmetrical triangle on the S&P500:



Today's price movement however, saw us breakout from the triangle to the downside which suggests a substantial retrenchment could be on the cards over the coming weeks. We will not chase this move though, but will instead wait patiently for the market to present us with a high probability short entry. I anticipate this being around the 923-928 (time dependent, of course) once again utilizing the same descending resistance that manifested our 955.4 and 931 shorts. Not a bad precedent I'd say, but we'll only take action if this circumstance - a retest of our descending resistance - materialises.

FX wise, we're still watching and waiting. There are at least two pairs that may form high probability into next week.

Happy Trading! Wishing you all a great weekend!

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