Tuesday 30 June 2009

Stay nimble, stay profitable....

Thursday may prove to be the gamechanger this week as the ECB set their interest rates and US non farm payroll will be released. Let me reiterate then the importance of staying nimble ahead of key data on Thursday; we will not carry any positions into the release of this data.

A prospective SPX short is in the offing today however at 934.1 as we seek to take advantage of enduring obedience to the same descending resistance line that yielded our 955.4 short. Here at the flatbook, we're happy to take advantage of recurring technical indicators particularly when they take shape so uniformly as this one appears to be:



Remember however, to be consistent with respect to trade management:

- ALWAYS implement tight stop losses.
- ALWAYS consistent stop losses sizewise.
- ALWAYS plan trade entries and exits ahead of schedule.
- NEVER move stop losses should a trade go against you.

There is no better or faster way to lose trading capital than to go against these hard and fast rules. Do so at your peril!!!



With reference to the previous post, our long order GBP/USD was not actioned; unfortunately Cable didn't go that low. In reaction to the dramatic and sudden strengthening of Sterling against the Dollar on the back of an unexpected rise in UK House prices in June of 0.9% (vs a median forecast of -0.5%), we may look to effect a short position at or around the crucial 1.6670 mark.





We are short GBP/EUR as of this morning at 1.1841; reason being the descending resistance line as illustrated on the chart below. Incidentally, our short was actioned ahead of the release of the UK GDP data. In line with our mandate, that is to mitigate capital risk outside of our control, I should have closed the profitable position prior to the data. Indeed, we were lucky that the GDP figure came out in favour of our position(-2.4% actual vs -2.0% forecasted; the biggest contraction since 1958), but it's not great practice and we will not find ourselves at the mercy of a jerk reaction to market data anytime soon. Notwithstanding this, the trade is currently in the black and as per our trading strategy, we will continute to trail stop losses accordingly to 'lock-in' profit.



Safe trading all!!

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