Wednesday 10 June 2009

Do I still want to be short this market?

This week is light on news and so lends itself to our paying more attention than usual to the technicals. Let me reiterate: Technically, we are very overbought. As I type the hourly S&P 500 RSI sits at 74.1523 and we are touching the uppermost bollinger band- all very ominous. However, as stated on a previous post, be mindful of the fact that overbought technicals are no guarantee of a sell-off. Many market insiders have shifted from calling a top around 940-960 to 1050, citing a resurgence in the flow of 'silly money' from long only funds. In stark contrast, I am not attempting to call a top from which we will see a substantial retracement, but instead am focusing my efforts towards identifying areas of substantial resistance. Enter 957.4 (daily) and 959.4 (hourly). We will be taking up sizeable short positions at these points with tight stop losses to profit from any retracement, big or small!

Happy Trading!




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