Safe trading traders!!
"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing."
- Warren Buffett
Thursday 21 January 2010
Is this wedge pattern is playing out...
Post Obama's Volcker rule announcement, we remain without position erring on the side of caution. As technical analysts we have to prepare for more downside as our many times mentioned bearish ascending wedge pattern, now begins to break down. Turbulent times ahead traders and so position yourself accordingly in this market. Worthy of mention is that we are not reneging on our medium term mandate which is to buy dips- but we are warning of further downside in the short term. Take a look at the charts and video below and let us know what you think!
Safe trading traders!!
"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing."
- Warren Buffett
Safe trading traders!!
"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing."
- Warren Buffett
Tuesday 19 January 2010
Long entry at 1137,,,
Good morning Flatbookers! We were long Friday at 1137 and 1133 on the S&P 500 on the back of the ever ascending, short-term support cited in our post on January 11th post. We intended to hold this position for the interim period. We moved stop losses to break even whilst the position was substantially in the black and were duely stopped out early this trading day for scratch.
Post slightly worse than expected results from Citigroup - -33¢/share vs -30¢/share forecasted, we will reject re-entry of this long position for now, despite the market offering us a better point of entry. Moreover, the formation of a bearish ascending wedge(see below) presents more of a case for a short position than a long. As such, we will do the only intelligent thing we can do when presented with contradictory evidence; that is remain on the sidelines.
Safe trading, traders!
"I’ve got friends, of course, but my business has always been the same – a one-man affair. That is why I have always played a lone hand."
Edwin Lefevre
Post slightly worse than expected results from Citigroup - -33¢/share vs -30¢/share forecasted, we will reject re-entry of this long position for now, despite the market offering us a better point of entry. Moreover, the formation of a bearish ascending wedge(see below) presents more of a case for a short position than a long. As such, we will do the only intelligent thing we can do when presented with contradictory evidence; that is remain on the sidelines.
Safe trading, traders!
"I’ve got friends, of course, but my business has always been the same – a one-man affair. That is why I have always played a lone hand."
Edwin Lefevre
Friday 15 January 2010
Thursday 14 January 2010
S&P 500 support
Good Morning Flatbookers. Ahead of the ECB rate decision (1245 GMT), US core retail sales and US unemployment claims(1330 GMT), we will remain on the sidelines. Here at the flatbook, we seek to negate being stopped out of a position due to market noise and short-term volatility. However, we do see a prospective entry long at 1034.5 should we get there post 1330 GMT. Our stop will be very tight at 1027.5. There has been enduring ascending support as of mid-March 2009 and this provides the fundament of our 1034.5 play. Secondarily, RSI on the D1 chart is facing up and so is bullish.
Profitable trading Flatbookers!
"Frankly, I don't see markets; I see risks, rewards, and money." Larry Hite
Profitable trading Flatbookers!
"Frankly, I don't see markets; I see risks, rewards, and money." Larry Hite
Monday 11 January 2010
What does 2010 have in store?
Happy New Year flatbookers! May 2010 be a profitable one for your all. Now down to business. To reference our December 1st post we believe that the S&P 500 has overcome the most robust technical threat since March in long-term descending resistance and November/December's flattop at 1120. Last Friday's positive reaction to worse than expected Non-Farm Payroll data (-85k actual vs -3k forecast), only served to underline the market's bullish mood.
Now at 1145, it would seem that momentum to the upside has prevailed, for now, and as Technical Analysts we are now buyers of dips. "What's our entry?", I hear you cry. Here at the flatbook we are currently on the sidelines and waiting for a possible long entry at 1127. The hyptonuse of the aforementioned ascending triangle could act as support within the ascending channel (pictured), hence our prospective entry price. We will continue to monitor price action however, and will post if we move on anything.
Safe Trading all!
"The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think." Jesse Livermore
Now at 1145, it would seem that momentum to the upside has prevailed, for now, and as Technical Analysts we are now buyers of dips. "What's our entry?", I hear you cry. Here at the flatbook we are currently on the sidelines and waiting for a possible long entry at 1127. The hyptonuse of the aforementioned ascending triangle could act as support within the ascending channel (pictured), hence our prospective entry price. We will continue to monitor price action however, and will post if we move on anything.
Safe Trading all!
"The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think." Jesse Livermore
S&P 500 Update III
We were stopped out at 1120.5 on 22nd December. We theorized that the flattop would not break pre-2010, as traders wound down their positions and indicators continued to look bearish. In retrospect, we might've been better positioned had we paid attention to the ascending triangle formed on the d1, from November onwards:
We saw a similar continuation pattern on d1 Gold over a similar time period:
An oversight on our part; a small setback that we will take in our stride an learn from going forward.
We saw a similar continuation pattern on d1 Gold over a similar time period:
An oversight on our part; a small setback that we will take in our stride an learn from going forward.
"...there are no mistakes, only lessons." Cherie Carter-Scott
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